A great deal of uncertainly now hangs over the world but at the show held early in April, 2002 at the Javits Convention Center, the car manufacturers were outwardly unconcerned. Almost all of the makers emphasized ever-larger sport utility vehicles, and their "concept" offerings -- presentations of possible future designs -- promised even more gigantic rigs to come.

As recently as fifteen years ago the industry was still downsizing its products in response the 1973 and 1979 oil crises; now it is upsizing. In fact, the smallest, most fuel-efficient cars, such as the Chevrolet/Geo Metro, the Volkswagen Fox, and several others, have been withdrawn from the market in recent years. Going in the 'bigger is better' direction, General Motors has formed a partnership with AM General, a maker of vehicles for the American military, and markets these products under the Hummer brand. Hummers would be more appropriately used in Kabul or Ramallah than Teaneck, but this seems to be part of the appeal as expressed in GM’s advertising. The brochures available at the show were aimed for people who take the term road warrior much too literally, even if they can’t decipher what the approach and departure angle specs mean. The 'water fording depth' figures -- either twenty or thirty inches, depending on model -- are more meaningful for those who worry about periodic flooding on the FDR Drive.

Just beneath the surface of the show’s glitz was evidence of troubles within the industry. Production overcapacity afflicts the global car market, and the need for constant (and often trivial) model changes strains the finances of all carmakers, pushing some out of the game. Although they maintain distinct displays at shows, Volvo, Jaguar, and Range Rover are wholly owned by Ford now, and many other makers (Kia, Chrysler, Saab, etc.) have also lost their independence.

This consolidation merely masks the problems of intense competition, a mature market, and a lack of consumer brand loyalty. For several months last winter, the major American producers offered zero-percent financing in a desperate bid to maintain market share. Car models proliferate endlessly, and many buyers hardly know or care the differences among them because, in reality, there are few differences. A minivan is a minivan, whether it’s assembled in Indiana, Mexico, or Korea. The fate of many brands may be that of GM’s dying Oldsmobile division. Even though the corporation has marked the line for eventually extinction, a display emphasized that "people are still buying Oldsmobiles"; a video scroll listed actual names of recent buyers. Presenting Oldsmobile as GM’s distress sale division is a novel way to sell cars. Perhaps the corporation can prolong this indefinitely, like those dubious electronics stores that perenially run "Going Out of Business Sale" banners.

Car manufacturing will continue in some form or another for a long time to come, but the present shape of the industry will be affected by events outside of its control. During the recent period of relatively cheap gasoline, the carmakers became dependent on profits from SUVs, minivans, and other light trucks. The Federal government has avoided further regulations on emissions and fuel efficiency. All of this has bought some time for the industry, but not a permanent fix. World oil production will probably peak in the next five to ten years, and during the period of decline the petroleum supplies around the Persian Gulf and elsewhere in Asia will be the subject of keen competition from all oil-consuming nations. The upheavals that the government and media call "The War on Terrorism", "The Crisis in the Middle East" and so forth are merely the prelude to vast changes to come. Even if those changes are not entirely clear yet, it is unlikely that Americans can forever drive their Lincoln Navigators to the local Seven-Eleven.

Chevrolet presented a strange exhibit at this year’s show. An off-duty fireman responding to the World Trade Center attacks had parked his Chevy pick-up next to the buildings. Later he found his battered and burned truck, but the engine still worked when he turned the ignition key. At the show the truck sat surrounded by GM’s glittering gas-guzzlers, not to present a note of caution, but as a marketing tool to reassure jittery consumers that Chevrolet is still Like a Rock.